Книги
Heterogeneity of the fiscal impulse impact on inflation in the Russian regions
Книги
Heterogeneity of the fiscal impulse impact on inflation in the Russian regions
Gabov, M. Heterogeneity of the fiscal impulse impact on inflation in the Russian regions / M. Gabov; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Ural Main Branch, Perm Division. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, july 2026. — 65 p.: il.. — (Working Paper Series; # 173). — References: p. 45-47.
Аннотация
The objective of this study is to quantify the impact of the fiscal impulse on inflation in the constituent territories of the Russian Federation, taking into account the heterogeneity of the fiscal positions of the Russian regions. Despite the existing theoretical foundations and accumulated international empirical results, there is a lack of systematic studies of the impact of fiscal policy on inflation at the regional level in Russia. This paper seeks to address this significant research gap proposing an adapted method for estimating the fiscal impulse, based on a comparison of a region’s actual consolidated budget deficit from its own resources with its ‘neutral’ level calculated as the median value over the period of macroeconomic stability from 2017 to 2019. The main hypothesis of the study is that the impact of the fiscal impulse is heterogeneous and depends on a region’s fiscal position derived from the results of a cluster analysis of the structural deficit. The econometric analysis was conducted using panel data for 85 constituent territories of Russia over the period from 2020 Q1 to 2025 Q3, employing dynamic panel models estimated using the Arellano – Bond System GMM. The results indicate that, in a specification with two-way effects, the fiscal impulse has a positive and statistically significant impact on the deviation of regional inflation from the countrywide rate. Thus, the breakdown of the sample by the fiscal position shows that the proinflationary effect of the fiscal impulse arises in the regions with chronically high structural deficits (Clusters 1 and 3), whereas for the regions with a neutral fiscal position (Cluster 2), the effect is absent. The degeneracy of the instrument matrix makes it impossible to estimate correctly the specified models with time effects for Clusters 1 and 3, which suggests high inertia of fiscal indicators in these regions and the structural nature of their fiscal policies. Nevertheless, additional analysis reveals a partial significance of the expenditure structure. In the specification with individual effects, the regions with a higher share of social expenditures exhibit a more pronounced inflationary response. However, when time effects are included, this interaction loses statistical significance. The results of this study have practical value and help enhance forecasting of regional inflation, taking into account the structural characteristics of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation.
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УДК:336.14(470)
Рекомендовано к ознакомлению
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