Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of Russian GDP with a dynamic factor model
Книги

Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of Russian GDP with a dynamic factor model

Книги

Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of Russian GDP with a dynamic factor model

Nowcasting and short-term forecasting of Russian GDP with a dynamic factor model / A. S. Porshakov, E. B. Deryugina, A. A. Ponomarenko, A. A. Sinyakov; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2015. — 38 p.: il.. — (Working Paper Series; № 2/ March). — References: P. 29-30.

Аннотация

Over the last decade Russia has experienced periods of both favorable and adverse con-ditions for economic growth which were caused simultaneously by internal and external factors. Increase in GDP throughout the steady trend in oil price growth starting in 2002 were followed by a dramatic downturn in the second half of 2008 and most of 2009, which came in the aftermath of a global economic and financial crisis. Further revival in economic growth was not persistent and still accompanied by some fluctuations in GDP dynamics. In the last couple of years the Russian economy has found itself in another slump, the nature and future prospects of which could per-haps be simultaneously described by a set of structural factors, deterioration of external economic conditions, as well as increased uncertainty given the consequences of the recent global political tensions and imposed sanctions.
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