Книги
Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model
Книги
Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model
Khabibullin, R. Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model / R. Khabibullin, A. Ponomarenko, S. Seleznev; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2018. — 30 p.: il.. — (Working paper series; 37, november). — References: p. 24-27.
Аннотация
We develop a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model that comprises a realistic mechanism of money creation and parametrize it to fit actually observed data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the agent-based model as well as the two-step approach, which implies the use of artificial data to pre-train the Bayesian vector autoregression model. We conclude that the suggested approach is competitive in forecasting and yields promising results.
Ключевые слова
- #агентно-ориентированные модели
- #английский язык
- #валютные резервы
- #графики
- #издания банка россии
- #иностранная валюта
- #методы расчетов
- #накопления
- #пономаренко а.а.
- #последствия
- #работы сотрудников
- #селезнев с.м.
- #таблицы
- #хабибуллин р.а.
- #центральный аппарат
- #эконометрика
- #эконометрические модели
- #экономическое моделирование
- #экономическое прогнозирование
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УДК:330.4
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