Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model
Книги

Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model

Книги

Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model

Khabibullin, R. Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model / R. Khabibullin, A. Ponomarenko, S. Seleznev; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2018. — 30 p.: il.. — (Working paper series; 37, november). — References: p. 24-27.

Аннотация

We develop a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model that comprises a realistic mechanism of money creation and parametrize it to fit actually observed data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign reserve accumulation by the Bank of Russia. We use direct forecasts from the agent-based model as well as the two-step approach, which implies the use of artificial data to pre-train the Bayesian vector autoregression model. We conclude that the suggested approach is competitive in forecasting and yields promising results.
  • УДК:
    330.4

Отзывы читателей

0