Книги
Forecasting inflation in Russia by dynamic model averaging
Styrin, K. Forecasting inflation in Russia by dynamic model averaging / K. Styrin; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2018. — 44 p.: il.. — (Working paper series; 39, december). — References: p. 23-24.
Аннотация
In this study, I forecast CPI inflation in Russia by the method of Dynamic Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2010; Koop and Korobilis, 2012) pseudo out-of-sample on historical data. This method can be viewed as an extension of the Bayesian Model Averaging where the identity of a model that generates data and model parameters are allowed to change over time. The DMA is shown not to produce forecasts superior to simpler benchmarks even if a subset of individual predictors is pre-selected “with the benefit of hindsight” on the full sample. The two groups of predictors that feature the highest average values of the posterior inclusion probability are loans to non-financial firms and individuals along with actual and anticipated wages.
-
УДК:330.4
Рекомендовано к ознакомлению
- 1. Seleznev, S. Truncated priors for tempered hierarchical Dirichlet process vector autoregression / S. Seleznev. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2019. — 37 p.. — (Working paper series. 47, october).
- 2. Khabibullin, R. Stochastic gradient variational Bayes and normalizing flows for estimating macroeconomic models / R. Khabibullin, S. Seleznev. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2020. — 49 p.. — (Working paper series. 61, september).
- 3. Congdon, P.D. Bayesian Hierarchical Models / P. D. Congdon. — 2nd ed.. — Boca Raton : CRC Press, 2020. — 579 p.. — ISBN 978-1-4987-8575-4.
- 4. Andreyev, M. Adding a fiscal rule into a DSGE model: how much does it change the forecasts? / M. Andreyev. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2020. — 53 p.. — (Working paper series. 64, november).
- 5. Kreptsev, D. DSGE model of the Russian economy with the banking sector / D. Kreptsev, S. Seleznev. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2017. — 79 p.. — (Working paper series. 27, december).
- 6. O'Donoghue, C. Practical microsimulation modelling / C. O'Donoghue. — Oxford : Oxford University Press, 2021. — 298 p.. — (Practical econometrics). — ISBN 978-0-19-885287-2.
- 7. Time series in high dimensions / editors: M. Hallin [et al.]. — Singapore : World Scientific, 2020. — 726 p.. — ISBN 978-981-3278-00-4.
- 8. Khabibullin, R. Forecasting the implications of foreign exchange reserve accumulation with an agent-based model / R. Khabibullin, A. Ponomarenko, S. Seleznev. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2018. — 30 p.. — (Working paper series. 37, november).
- 9. Dynamic economic problems with regime switches / editors: J. L. Haunschmied [et al.]. — Cham : Springer, 2021. — 309 p.. — (Dynamic modeling and econometrics in economics and finance. Vol. 25). — ISBN 978-3-030-54575-8.
- 10. Harvey, A.C. Dynamic models for volatility and heavy tails / A. C. Harvey. — Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 2013. — 262 p.. — (Econometric society monographs). — ISBN 9781107034723.
Отзывы читателей
0