Financial stability implications of policy mix in a small open commodity-exporting economy
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Financial stability implications of policy mix in a small open commodity-exporting economy

Financial stability implications of policy mix in a small open commodity-exporting economy / I. Kozlovtceva, A. Ponomarenko, A. Sinyakov, S. Tatarintsev; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, [Research and Forecasting Department]. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, june 2019. — 75 p.: il.. — (Working paper series; # 42). — Ref.: p. 38-42.

Аннотация

In this paper, we look at a commodity-exporting economy not fully isolated from commodity price volatility by fiscal policy. We study how systematic monetary policy under inflation targeting may contribute to financial instability by fueling the credit cycle when commodity prices increase or by amplifying the credit crunch when commodity prices decline. We report several empirical observations that illustrate the potential procyclicality (relative to credit developments) of inflation targeting policy where commodity price fluctuations are the main drivers of macroeconomic developments.

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