Optimal level of inflation target, ZLB, and equilibrium real interest rate
Книги

Optimal level of inflation target, ZLB, and equilibrium real interest rate

Glazova, A. Optimal level of inflation target, ZLB, and equilibrium real interest rate : working paper / A. Glazova; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, may 2023. — 106 p.: il.. — (Monetary policy review). — References: p. 89-90.

Аннотация

In this paper, I explore the optimal inflation target level in the New Keynesian DSGE-model with imperfect price indexation for non-zero trend inflation and a zero lower bound on interest rates. In addition, I study the impact of the real interest rate on the choice of the optimal inflation target and discuss the costs of adopting a new target level. As a criterion for determining the optimal target level, I use a structural, consumer utility-based loss function. My model is calibrated for the Russian economy but may also be relevant for other resource-rich emerging market countries. I have found out that the optimal inflation target level in this setting of the problem is below the current target of the Bank of Russia of 4%, and this conclusion is robust to the model parameters. In addition, I have ascertained a stable negative relationship between the real interest rate and optimal inflation rate.
  • УДК:
    336.748(470)

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