The role of communication in the emergence of surprises in Bank of Russia monetary policy
Книги

The role of communication in the emergence of surprises in Bank of Russia monetary policy

Evstigneeva, A. The role of communication in the emergence of surprises in Bank of Russia monetary policy / A. Evstigneeva, Y. Shchadilova, M. Sidorovskiy; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Research and Forecasting Department, The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Financial Stability Department. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, august 2022. — 53 p.: il.. — (Working Paper Series; # 99). — References: p. 34-37.

Аннотация

In this paper, we examined how the quality of communication and the general information background influence the predictability of the Bank of Russia's decisions on the key rate. Contrary to expectations, the start of the publication of the key rate trajectory did not lead to an increase in predictability, as suggested in previous papers. We show that this can hardly be explained by increased uncertainty, which had only limited impact on decision predictability in 2015-2021. Miscommunication (the difference in focus of Bank of Russia and analysts' messages) and verbal interventions (Bank of Russia speeches in the weeks before the decision to "correct" market expectations) also showed almost no significance in the occurrence of surprises.
  • УДК:
    336.711(470)
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