Synchronisation of business cycles in Russia and China
Книги

Synchronisation of business cycles in Russia and China

Krylov, D. Synchronisation of business cycles in Russia and China / D. Krylov, N. Pakhmutov; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Far Eastern Main Branch, Higher School of Economics. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, may 2025. — 56 p.: il.. — (Working Paper Series; # 150). — References: p. 35-40.

Аннотация

This study aims to assess the impact of the changes in foreign trade on Russian business cycles. Specifically, we intend to verify a hypothesis about a greater degree of synchronisation in the business cycles of China and Russia since 2022, driven by the higher volumes of bilateral trade. We use GVAR with time-varying weights as the method of our analysis. The weights are the shares of the countries that generate value-added foreign trade. We measure the degree of synchronisation between Russia and China based on an analysis of Russia's output impulse responses to simulated positive output shocks for China, taking into account the secondary effects of Asia, the US and Europe.
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