Книги
Lessons from crises for better Bank of Russia communication with financial markets
Книги
Lessons from crises for better Bank of Russia communication with financial markets
Pavlenko, M. Lessons from crises for better Bank of Russia communication with financial markets : working paper / M. Pavlenko, T. Gorbatova, A. Evstigneeva; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, 2023. — 52 p.: il.. — (Monetary Policy Review). — References: p. 21-23.
Аннотация
This study is an assessment of the impact of Bank of Russia communication on volatility in financial markets, both in crisis episodes and in calmer times. This impact is analysed in terms of six characteristics of communication: volume, the intensity of signal correction, commitment to the target, the degree of invariance of communication (further, invariance), the presence or absence of a signal, and the degree of communication confidence (further, confidence). Our methods are regression models, Granger causality tests, and the PCMCI algorithm – a more advanced method to determine causal relationships in arrays with linear and non-linear dependencies for time series, allowing for mutual influence lags. We find significant differences in how financial markets perceive Bank of Russia communication, and all the variables above have an effect. In times of increased volatility, communication has a stabilising impact on markets. Outside of these episodes, its impact is rather destabilising, probably owing to the communication noise that emerges in the media landscape. In relatively quiet times, market players do not expect extraordinary communication from the central bank and may well be disconcerted by the unexpected release of such communication. Our findings are aligned with those of Caiazza et al. (2022) and Hwang, Lustenberger, and Rossi (2021). Furthermore, we discover that the Bank of Russia’s impact on the markets tends to be negative when it releases large volumes of monetary policy documents, while signal corrections and communication in between policy meetings tend to have a positive effect. At the same time, markets respond better to more specific Delphic forward guidance than to the absence of forward guidance. The communication of a commitment to the inflation target is particularly important for markets in times of crisis. Importantly, while communication has an influence on financial markets, the state of financial markets has a significant impact on the central bank’s communication tactics. Specifically, strong market fluctuations may spur the central bank's intent to give a signal and may increase the frequency of pronouncements by Bank of Russia executives on key factors of monetary policy.
Ключевые слова
- #английский язык
- #банк россии
- #воздействие
- #волатильность
- #денежно-кредитная политика
- #издания банка россии
- #информационная политика
- #информационная прозрачность
- #коммуникационная политика
- #монетарная политика
- #оценка эффективности
- #пресс-релиз
- #публикации
- #работы сотрудников
- #россия
- #таргетирование инфляции
- #трансмиссионный механизм
- #финансовые кризисы
- #финансовые рынки
- #финансовый рынок
- #фондовый рынок
- #центральные банки
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УДК:336.711(470)
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