Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting
Книги

Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting

Книги

Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting

Koshelev, D. Amortized neural networks for agent-based model forecasting / D. Koshelev, A. Ponomarenko, S. Seleznev; The Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Research and Forecasting Department. — Moscow : Bank of Russia, july 2023. — 36 p.: il.. — (Working paper series; # 115). — References: p. 18-20.

Аннотация

In this paper, we propose a new procedure for unconditional and conditional forecasting in agent-based models. The proposed algorithm is based on the application of amortized neural networks and consists of two steps. The first step simulates artificial datasets from the model. In the second step, a neural network is trained to predict the future values of the variables using the history of observations. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is its speed. This is due to the fact that, after the training procedure, it can be used to yield predictions for almost any data without additional simulations or the re-estimation of the neural network.
  • УДК:
    330.4

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